Introduction
Undeniable evidences throughout the globe indicate that
global climate has changed compared to the pre-industrial era and is expected
to continue the trend through 21st century and beyond. The Inter-governmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)1 documented that global mean temperature has
increased approximately 0.76°C between 1850-1899 and 2001-2005 and it has
concluded that most of the observed changes in global average temperatures
since the mid-20th century is 'very likely' the result of human activities that
are increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.
Therefore, we observe various manifestations of climate change including ocean
warming, continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes and wind
patterns. Widespread decreases in glaciers and ice caps and warming ocean
surface temperature have contributed to sea level rise of 1.8 mm per year from
1961 to 2003, and approximately 3.1 mm per year from 1993 to 2003.
The IPCC has projected that the pace of climate change is to
accelerate with continued greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at or above the
current rates. IPCC best estimate suggested that globally averaged surface
temperatures would rise by 1.8°C to 4.0°C by the end of the 21st century. Even
with a stabilized atmospheric concentration of GHGs at the current level, the
earth would continue to warm because of past GHG emissions as well as the
thermal inertia of the oceans.
Future changes in temperatures and other important features
of climate will manifest themselves in different fashions across various
regions of the globe. It is likely that the tropical cyclones (typhoons and
hurricanes) will become more severe, with greater wind speeds and heavier
precipitation. This will be associated with continuing increase of tropical sea
surface temperatures. Extra-tropical storm tracks are projected to shift
towards the pole, with consequent changes in wind, precipitation and
temperature patterns. The decreases in snow cover are also projected to
continue.
The environmental and economic risks associated with
predictions for climate change are considerable. The gravity of the situation
has resulted in various recent international policy debates. The IPCC has come
out with firm conclusions that climate change would hinder the ability of
several nations to achieve sustainable development. The Stern Review on the
Economics of Climate Change found that the present cost reducing GHG emissions
is much smaller than the future costs of economic and social disruption due to
unmitigated climate change. Every country as well as economic sectors will have
to strive with the challenges of climate change through adaptation and
mitigation.
Tourism is no exception and in the decades ahead, climate
change will play a pivotal role in tourism development and management. With its
close links to the environment, tourism is considered a highly
climate-sensitive sector. The regional manifestations of climate change will be
highly relevant for tourism sector that demands adaptation by all major tourism
stakeholders. In fact, it is not a remote future for the tourism sector since
varied impacts of a changing climate are already evident at destinations around
the world.
As an other side of the above story, tourism sector itself
is a major contributor climate change through GHG emissions, especially, from
the transport and accommodation of tourists. Tourism sector must play a
proactive role to reduce its GHG emissions significantly in harmony with the
'Vienna Climate Change Talks 2007' which recognized that global emissions of
GHG need to peak in the next 10-15 years and then be reduced to very low
levels, well below half of levels in 2000 by mid-century. The major challenge
ahead of tourism sector is to meet the international sustainable development
agenda along with managing increased energy use and GHG emissions from massive
growth in activities projected for the sector.
The concern of the tourism community regarding the challenge
of climate change has visibly increased over the last five years. The World
Tourism Organization (UNWTO) and other partner organizations convened the First
International Conference on Climate Change and Tourism in Debra, Tunisia in
2003. The Debra Declaration recognized the complex inter-linkages between the
tourism sector and climate change and established a framework for on adaptation
and mitigation. A number of individual tourism industry associations and
businesses have also shown great concerns by voluntarily adopting GHG emission
reduction targets, engaging in public education campaigns on climate change and
supporting government climate change legislation.
Direct impacts
Climate determines seasonality in tourism demand and
influences the operating costs, such as heating-cooling, snowmaking,
irrigation, food and water supply and the likes. Thus, changes in the length
and quality of climate-dependent tourism seasons (i.e., sun-and-sea or winter
sports holidays) could have considerable implications for competitive
relationships between destinations and, therefore, the profitability of tourism
enterprises. As a result, the competitive positions of some popular holiday
areas are anticipated to decline, whereas other areas are expected to improve.
The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) has
concluded that changes in a number of weather extremes are probable because of
projected climate change. This
includes higher maximum temperature and more hot days, greater storm intensity
and peak winds, more intense precipitation and longer and more severe droughts
in many areas. These changes will have direct bearing on tourism industry
through increased infrastructure damage, additional emergency preparedness
requirements, higher operating expenses and business interruptions.
